top of page
Search

The bubble in quality

  • apesutto
  • Apr 27, 2018
  • 2 min read





JASON TEH |


It is hard to spot a market bubble in the making. As they inflate, market participants often rationalise their investment decisions as to why they are paying higher prices. It’s only after they burst that that bubbles become clear.


The most recent bubble bursting has been Bitcoin. Now we would contend that there is a ‘quality’ bubble brewing.


Over the last decade, there has been excellent academic research on quality investing. One research paper even suggests that Warren Buffet’s investment style is just a leveraged strategy on quality stocks. Why wouldn’t you want to replicate the investment style of the world’s greatest investor backed by a mountain of academic research?


To be clear, we believe investing in quality stocks can generate reasonable returns. However, price also plays an important role in generating future total returns. When price is ignored the foundations for low future returns are set.


Falling in love with quality companies is not new. In the early 1970s, it felt right to buy and hold the best 50 companies (Nifty Fifty) in the US market. Yet, like all good booms, valuations hit extreme levels and it eventually ended badly.


In today’s environment, there seems to be much uncertainty … potentially rising interest rates, lower economic growth, volatile commodity prices, and increasing Government intervention. It might feel good buying quality companies that can grow earnings in the face of these uncertainties. And it’s very easy to justify buying them when their returns on capital are high and long-term prospects seem strong.


Indeed, quality companies have delivered excellent long-term earnings growth. The following chart highlights forecast EBITDA growth of three stocks that many consider royalty in Australia – CSL, ResMed and Cochlear.


Chart 1. Two-year forecast EBITDA growth (rolling annual average) of CSL, ResMed and Cochlear

Source: Factset


Very few companies have achieved these phenomenal growth rates over a 15-year period. Prior to 2009, when these companies were smaller their historic and forecast earnings growth were exceptional. However, post-2009 their forecast earnings growth, although healthy, has been more subdued.


The following chart highlights their valuations (as represented by forecast EV/EBITDA multiples) over the same time frame.


Chart 2. Forecast EV/EBITDA (rolling annual average) multiple of CSL, ResMed and Cochlear

Source: Factset


High valuations are expected for fast growing companies. However, the above charts highlight something very odd for these quality stocks.


Over the last year their valuations have skyrocketed. Their multiples are now at 15-year highs while their forecast earnings growth has remained relatively constant around 13% per annum. In contrast, 2006/2007 was the last period where extreme multiples were observed but earnings growth was significantly stronger.


These quality companies are exhibiting peak multiples despite lower growth expectations.


History shows that extreme multiples do not last forever. While the earnings growth may be sustainable, poor future returns are the likely outcome when peak multiples mean revert. High quality companies do not necessarily make high quality investments.

 
 
 

留言


DISCLAIMER 

This website and its contents are general in nature and do not constitute or convey personal financial advice. It has been prepared without consideration of anyone’s financial situation, needs, or financial objectives. Before acting on the areas discussed and contained herein, you should consider whether it is appropriate for you and whether you need to seek professional advice. Investment in securities and other financial products involves risk. An investment in a financial product may have the potential for capital growth and income but may also carry the risk that the total return on the investment may be less than the amount contributed directly by the investor. Investors risk losing some or all of their capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The material contained in this website is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. The Company, its related parties and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this website. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, the authors of this website accept no liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of that person, or any other person, placing any reliance on the contents of this website.

Vertium Asset Management Pty Ltd (ABN 25 615 639 659), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Corporate Authorised Representative Number 001258758) of Clime Asset Management Pty Ltd (ABN 72 098 420 770), AFSL 221146.

The rating issued October 2021 APIR OPS1827AU is published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec). Ratings are general advice only, and have been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider your personal circumstances, read the product disclosure statement and seek independent financial advice before investing. The rating is not a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any product. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance. Ratings are subject to change without notice and Lonsec assumes no obligation to update. Lonsec uses objective criteria and receives a fee from the Fund Manager. Visit lonsec.com.au for ratings information and to access the full report. © 2022 Lonsec. All rights reserved.

The Zenith Investment Partners (ABN 27 103 132 672, AFS Licence 226872) (“Zenith”) rating (assigned APIR OPS1827AU May 2024) referred to in this piece is limited to “General Advice” (s766B Corporations Act 2001) for Wholesale clients only. This advice has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual, including target markets of financial products, where applicable, and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. It is not a specific recommendation to purchase, sell or hold the relevant product(s). Investors should seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision and should consider the appropriateness of this advice in light of their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should obtain a copy of, and consider the PDS or offer document before making any decision and refer to the full Zenith Product Assessment available on the Zenith website. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Zenith usually charges the product issuer, fund manager or related party to conduct Product Assessments. Full details regarding Zenith’s methodology, ratings definitions and regulatory compliance are available on our Product Assessments and at http://www.zenithpartners.com.au/RegulatoryGuidelines

bottom of page