For decades, base metals such as copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, and lead traded as a reflection of global growth. Prices typically moved in lockstep with industrial activity and were closely correlated with global growth proxies such as oil and iron ore. This relationship held remarkably well across multiple cycles, including China’s industrialisation, the post-GFC recovery, and the post-COVID rebound. But something changed in 2024. In my earlier work on an AI-driven commod

The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 was a defining moment in history. Within months, it accelerated a full-blown AI arms race and triggered an unprecedented concentration of capital expenditure into compute infrastructure. Over the past three years, major hyperscalers have announced plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in data centres, chips, networking and power systems. This scale of spending is now powerful enough to break decades-old relationships across glo

Brave New World: Flows versus Fundamentals Valuation bubbles are euphoric but fleeting, driven by short-lived speculative flows. The 2000...

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is in the midst of a valuation bubble, defying the principle that long term stock returns are driven...

In 49 BC, Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River, sparking a civil war that ended the Roman Republic – a moment now synonymous for...

Stock market history is punctuated by dramatic periods of exuberant optimism (booms) and deep pessimism (busts). These cycles are...

The Australian stock market's continued upward trajectory stands in stark contrast to the challenges faced by the Chinese economy.

Quality investing, a strategy focused on companies with strong financials and consistent performance, has become a dominant force in recent

The recent strength of the market rally has sparked concerns about a return of market bubbles. Bubbles are often easy to identify in...

Global equity markets finished the calendar year on a euphoric note as the US Federal Reserve held off on further rate hikes. This pause...